NFL Preview - Looking Forward to the NFL

In this post, I will give a preview of how I think the league will pan out, who the teams to watch will be and who might be fighting to stay in Division 1 next season.

I awoke this morning to find the sun shining through a cloudless sky. The excitement briefly built inside me as I imagined a sunny day in Croke Park supporting Dublin. That lasted roughly five minutes, until I opened the door and the freezing cold air reminded that we are still in the first week of February. Nonetheless, as I previously discussed, today signals the real start of a the GAA season and fans of our other national sport can look forward to seven weekends of competitive football. Division 1 is particularly strong, undoubtedly containing the eight strongest teams in the country.

Reigning champions Cork come into the League having relinquished their McGrath Cup crown with a quarter-final defeat to Tipperary. They existed last year's Championship with a comprehensive semi-final defeat to eventual champions Donegal. In all fairness to Cork however, only Kerry realistically looked like they might beat Donegal last year, and even then the Ulstermen were still the deserving winners in that quarter-final game. Cork's form in the League has been exceptionally good, winning the competition for the last three years in a row. Conor Counihan accepted a new offer from the county board in October, and he has not lost players to hurling with dual star Eoin Cadigan recently deciding to solely focus on football for this season. Counihan has named a strong starting line-up to face Dublin, which includes another hurler from 2012, Damien Cahalane, as well as eleven of those who started last year's All-Ireland semi-final. It suggests taht Counihan knows his best players and he wants to make sure that the New Ireland Trophy stays resident on the banks of the Lee. If they can beat an experimental Dublin side on Saturday, expect them to be there or there abouts come April. Whatever happens, Cork won't be battling to avoid relegation this year.

All-Ireland Champions Donegal began their recent resurgence in form with a victory in Division 2 of the League in 2011. Since then, they have rarely looked back as Jim McGuinness has moulded his team into a super fit, tactically astute machine. They beat all before them in last year's Championship with comparative ease, apart from Kerry, and their All-Ireland victory seemed to most, a case of 'by how much' rather than 'if' from early in the season. It was only the second time in the GAA's 129 year history that Sam has headed for the Hills. Naturally enough, Donegal enjoyed their success. They failed to get out of their group in the McKenna Cup, and they will notice that teams have that extra percent against them this year as team's attempt to claim the scalp of the All-Ireland Champions. In my view, Donegal will take a couple of rounds to be adequately fit enough to beat teams. I don't expect them to be in trouble regarding relegation; they are far too talented a team for that. I do feel that coming back into competitive action will be a difficult task for them however, and a mid-table finish (4th or 5th) is likely to be the result.

Kerry are, surprisingly (!), the most successful team in the NFL having won the competition on 19 occasions. They are the last non-Cork winner of the competition, and I fully expect them to challenge come April. They have a new manager in place, Eamon Fitzmaurice, who can breath life into the old dog. They won the McGrath Cup, and I believe that this Kerry team can beat anyone on their day. The core of the team hasn't changed since last season, other than Seamus Scanlon's retirement, and Colm Cooper is as dangerous as he ever was. However, without some of their key players early in the League, due to club commitments and injuries, Kerry might struggle for form before mid-March. Last season they were soundly beaten by Cork in Munster, before recovering to reach the All-Ireland quarter final. Their path included a sweet heavy victory over old foes Tyrone, and they gave Donegal their best match of the season. The untimely death of Páidí Ó Sé is sure to be a motivational factor for a Kerry team who believe themselves to have underachieved over the last three seasons. I expect them to make the semi-finals in this year's League.

Dublin come into the League with a new manager, Jim Gavin. The Defence Forces man's under-age pedigree is superb, having won two of the last three All-Ireland u-21 titles. He succeeds Pat Gilroy, who had overhauled Dublin from a team who entertained but generally got beaten in big games, into a team who was much more tactically aware. 2011's All-Ireland victory was the culmination of his overhaul, and it has raised expectation within the capital. The big question is whether Gavin can translate under-age success into form at senior level. He has professed his desire to introduce new tactical systems for his team, and it has been predicted in the media that hill call upon more players from his u-21 teams than his predecessor did. The team he has named for Dublin's opener seems to prove Colm Keys to be correct, as only seven of the side which lost the All-Ireland semi-final to Mayo last year are set to start. Thus, I feel the League will be used more as a means of trying out new tactics rather than building momentum. Granted, if that tactics worked from the off, Dublin could quite obviously build momentum heading into the Championship. Realistically though, Dublin will have a similar campaign to last season's, in which they finished fifth. I reckon they will be battling with Donegal for that last semi-final place.

Mayo were beaten in the All-Ireland final in September by a strongly fancied Donegal team. The most disappointing aspect, from a Mayo point of view, was the fact that they didn't really give themselves a chance. Two goals in the first fifteen minutes meant the game was over before it had really begun. Mayo are quite used to coming back from defeats in All-Ireland finals and James Horan has a young squad to mould. Mayo have been consistently good in the League in recent years and I expect them to challenge for a semi-final place at least.

Tyrone were hugely impressive in their promotion from Division 2 last season. Their form didn't carry however and they exited the Championship at a whimper against Kerry. The great Tyrone team of the last decade is no more, despite Mickey Harte's continued involvement, and I think they will struggle to make the semi-finals. Writing off a Harte managed team is a foolish ploy however, so don't be surprised to see them pick up some form following their victory in the McKenna Cup against Monaghan.

Down had their one stand-out season in 2010, when they defeated Kerry en route to an All-Ireland Final against Cork. Since that defeat, they have retreated somewhat. A League semi-final defeat to the Rebels last year was followed by a defeat in the Ulster semi-final and a heavy defeat against Mayo in the All-Ireland Quarter Final. I think it will be a struggle for the Mourne Men to stay in Division 1 for next season.

Finally, we come to the other newly promoted team, Kildare. The Lilywhites have been the hard-luck story of the last four years. Narrow defeats against Dublin, Down and Donegal in recent seasons culminated in a heavy defeat to Cork in the All-Ireland quarter finals last year. The expected departure of Kieran McGeeney never materialised, and instead, former Wexford manager Jason Ryan has been brought in as an assistant. Ryan did good work with the Wexford footballers in his spell there, and he would have won at least one Leinster Championship if he had a better a squad of players down south. He might prove the difference between Kildare being another hard luck story and them being provincial champions later in the summer. Kildare's panel has not seen much change over the last few seasons, while their stalwart, John Doyle, is entering his last season in a Lilywhite jersey. I expect that this will be a tough competition for Kildare and I expect them to be struggling for survival come April.

How I think it will pan out:

1. Cork

2. Kerry

3. Mayo

4. Donegal

5. Dublin

6. Tyrone

7. Kildare

8. Down