The All-Ireland Football Final Preview
So here it is, the match that every real football fan in the country (and beyond) looks forward to. The form team this calendar year will play against The Championship's highest scoring team. Normal order has been resumed, after the anomaly that was the 2011 Final, as the country collectively declares its allegiance to "whoever Dublin are playing!" But who will be celebrating come Sunday night?
Mayo
Let's firstly look at Mayo. They waltzed through what surely has to be the weakest Connacht Championship in a generation. Before the Championship, some were predicting that Galway, off the back of winning the under-21 All-Ireland Championship, would be able to turn over Mayo. A combination of a determined Mayo and a wholly underwhelming Galway saw James Horan's men thump the Tribesmen by seventeen points. They followed up the biggest victory they had recorded over their fiercest rivals since 1907 by recording facile victories over a weak Roscommon side and first-time finalists London.
The ease of the provincial victory put doubt into the mind of the GAA public, as thescore.ie, hoganstand.com and gaa.ie all called into question Mayo's lack of a competitive game, suggesting that it might be their undoing. Their performance against the reigning All-Ireland champions Donegal was hugely impressive however. All over the pitch they were hungrier, and their fitness was really brought to the fore as they bullied a team who had previously set the bar for physicality in the football championship. Their sixteen point victory, even if it was against a Donegal team who had never reached the performance levels of 2012, rubbished any of the doubts expressed before the game.
Their performance against a more in-tune Tyrone team showed the resilience the Mayo team possesses under Horan. Tyrone started the game the stronger team, and they led by four points at one stage. The men from the west never panicked however, even after the injury to influential forward Cillian O'Connor, and they gradually turned the game around. They eventually won by six points.
The real strength in this Mayo team is in midfield. The two O'Shea brothers will win plenty of primary possession for Mayo if Stephen Cluxton is foolish enough to aim the ball in their direction. Their forwards, although somewhat written off in the build up to this match, are very capable players. Cillian O'Connor has been named in the team for Sunday and, if he plays the full game, he has a great chance of becoming the highest scoring player for the 2013 Championship. Alan Freeman and Alan Dillon will also cause this Dublin defence much hassle.
Dublin
Dublin came through a somewhat more difficult provincial championship, defeating Division 2 runners up Westmeath, League semi-finalists Kildare and old-rivals Meath en route to their eight Leinster Championship in nine seasons. The Leinster Championship is not however, the competition that it is used to be. During the 1990s, the Leinster Champions competed in eight of the ten finals in that decade and the province had three All-Ireland winning teams. 2011 was the first time a Leinster side had reached the All-Ireland Final since 2001.
Dublin faced a potential banana skin in the quarter-finals against Cork, but they put in an assured performance to gain some revenge for the 2010 semi-final defeat. Dublin's wing-backs, particularly Jack McCaffrey, proved to be very effective for Dublin that day giving their attack a new dimension. Their semi-final against Kerry showed the calmness of the Dublin team, as well as the mental resolve of the players, as they fell five points behind to three early goals. Management made crucial early changes in defence, taking off Kevin O'Brien after sixteen minutes, and Ger Brennan at half-time. This shored up the defence, and meant Dublin never conceded a fourth goal. The introduction of Dean Rock and Kevin McManamon later on gave Dublin the edge and they pushed on to win by a flattering seven points.
Dublin's strength undoubtedly lies in their forward line. Bernard Brogan is a former Footballer of the Year, while Paul Flynn is a double All-Star winner. Paul Mannion's form earlier in the season would have surely seen him named as an All-Star if the awards were being given out after the provincial championships, and Diarmuid Connolly's form has improved throughout the season, culminating in a Man of the Match award in the semi-final victory over Kerry.
Who Will Win?
Michael Dara MacAuley is a towering presence at midfield, and a worthy opponent of either of the O'Shea brothers. Where Dublin are unquestionably weaker than Mayo is in their lack of a worthy partner for MacAuley who can last the seventy minutes. Cian O'Sullivan is a fantastic athlete, and he has been hugely impressive when Dublin have avoided midfield and played a running game. However it is very likely that Mayo will aim for midfield from their own kick outs, and thus Dublin might find it difficult to secure possession from Rob Hennelly's kick outs.
Much has been made of Ger Brennan's inadequacies against Gooch Cooper. I personally wouldn't have started Brennan, even before what happened in the semi-final. He is susceptible to being put off his game by opponents, and reacting angrily. The image of him pushing his hands into Kieron Donaghy's face in the dying seconds of the 2011 final is a perfect example, and he was sent off against Mayo as recently as the group game in the League this year. The image of him being put on his arse by Stephen Bray during the second-half of the Leinster Final is a haunting image for Dublin fans. He is definitely an exploitable link for the Mayo.
Damien Lawlor, speaking to the Irish Independent, argues that Dublin's prolific forwards will pose a huge threat to Mayo, and that if they don't deploy a sweeper, their All-Ireland Final day will go the way of six of their previous seven appearances since 1989 (Mayo drew with Meath in 1996). From a Dublin point of view it is crucial to get Brogan, Connolly and Mannion on the ball early in the hope that they will score. They are confidence forwards, and if they hit the ground running, Dublin will have a great chance of winning this match.
Stephen Cluxton's kick outs will play an important role in dictating how much possession Dublin can secure throughout the game. Kerry put pressure on Cluxton in the semi-finals, and it resulted in them winning a free which led to their penalty. Mayo put pressure on Pascal McConnell's kick outs in their semi-final and it resulted in at least one turn over on the Tyrone twenty one yard line. Dublin will be aware of Mayo's push up tactic, and how Jim Gavin and his management team have prepared for it will have a crucial bearing on the result on Sunday.
Taking O'Connor's questionable fitness, the form of Brogan and Connolly, the pace of the Dublin team, and the willingness of Gavin to change his team if things go wrong into account, I think Dublin might just shade it this weekend by two points. Am I letting my heart rule my head? We'll see come twenty-past five on Sunday evening.
Mayo
Let's firstly look at Mayo. They waltzed through what surely has to be the weakest Connacht Championship in a generation. Before the Championship, some were predicting that Galway, off the back of winning the under-21 All-Ireland Championship, would be able to turn over Mayo. A combination of a determined Mayo and a wholly underwhelming Galway saw James Horan's men thump the Tribesmen by seventeen points. They followed up the biggest victory they had recorded over their fiercest rivals since 1907 by recording facile victories over a weak Roscommon side and first-time finalists London.
The ease of the provincial victory put doubt into the mind of the GAA public, as thescore.ie, hoganstand.com and gaa.ie all called into question Mayo's lack of a competitive game, suggesting that it might be their undoing. Their performance against the reigning All-Ireland champions Donegal was hugely impressive however. All over the pitch they were hungrier, and their fitness was really brought to the fore as they bullied a team who had previously set the bar for physicality in the football championship. Their sixteen point victory, even if it was against a Donegal team who had never reached the performance levels of 2012, rubbished any of the doubts expressed before the game.
Their performance against a more in-tune Tyrone team showed the resilience the Mayo team possesses under Horan. Tyrone started the game the stronger team, and they led by four points at one stage. The men from the west never panicked however, even after the injury to influential forward Cillian O'Connor, and they gradually turned the game around. They eventually won by six points.
The real strength in this Mayo team is in midfield. The two O'Shea brothers will win plenty of primary possession for Mayo if Stephen Cluxton is foolish enough to aim the ball in their direction. Their forwards, although somewhat written off in the build up to this match, are very capable players. Cillian O'Connor has been named in the team for Sunday and, if he plays the full game, he has a great chance of becoming the highest scoring player for the 2013 Championship. Alan Freeman and Alan Dillon will also cause this Dublin defence much hassle.
Dublin
Dublin came through a somewhat more difficult provincial championship, defeating Division 2 runners up Westmeath, League semi-finalists Kildare and old-rivals Meath en route to their eight Leinster Championship in nine seasons. The Leinster Championship is not however, the competition that it is used to be. During the 1990s, the Leinster Champions competed in eight of the ten finals in that decade and the province had three All-Ireland winning teams. 2011 was the first time a Leinster side had reached the All-Ireland Final since 2001.
Dublin faced a potential banana skin in the quarter-finals against Cork, but they put in an assured performance to gain some revenge for the 2010 semi-final defeat. Dublin's wing-backs, particularly Jack McCaffrey, proved to be very effective for Dublin that day giving their attack a new dimension. Their semi-final against Kerry showed the calmness of the Dublin team, as well as the mental resolve of the players, as they fell five points behind to three early goals. Management made crucial early changes in defence, taking off Kevin O'Brien after sixteen minutes, and Ger Brennan at half-time. This shored up the defence, and meant Dublin never conceded a fourth goal. The introduction of Dean Rock and Kevin McManamon later on gave Dublin the edge and they pushed on to win by a flattering seven points.
Dublin's strength undoubtedly lies in their forward line. Bernard Brogan is a former Footballer of the Year, while Paul Flynn is a double All-Star winner. Paul Mannion's form earlier in the season would have surely seen him named as an All-Star if the awards were being given out after the provincial championships, and Diarmuid Connolly's form has improved throughout the season, culminating in a Man of the Match award in the semi-final victory over Kerry.
Who Will Win?
Michael Dara MacAuley is a towering presence at midfield, and a worthy opponent of either of the O'Shea brothers. Where Dublin are unquestionably weaker than Mayo is in their lack of a worthy partner for MacAuley who can last the seventy minutes. Cian O'Sullivan is a fantastic athlete, and he has been hugely impressive when Dublin have avoided midfield and played a running game. However it is very likely that Mayo will aim for midfield from their own kick outs, and thus Dublin might find it difficult to secure possession from Rob Hennelly's kick outs.
Much has been made of Ger Brennan's inadequacies against Gooch Cooper. I personally wouldn't have started Brennan, even before what happened in the semi-final. He is susceptible to being put off his game by opponents, and reacting angrily. The image of him pushing his hands into Kieron Donaghy's face in the dying seconds of the 2011 final is a perfect example, and he was sent off against Mayo as recently as the group game in the League this year. The image of him being put on his arse by Stephen Bray during the second-half of the Leinster Final is a haunting image for Dublin fans. He is definitely an exploitable link for the Mayo.
Damien Lawlor, speaking to the Irish Independent, argues that Dublin's prolific forwards will pose a huge threat to Mayo, and that if they don't deploy a sweeper, their All-Ireland Final day will go the way of six of their previous seven appearances since 1989 (Mayo drew with Meath in 1996). From a Dublin point of view it is crucial to get Brogan, Connolly and Mannion on the ball early in the hope that they will score. They are confidence forwards, and if they hit the ground running, Dublin will have a great chance of winning this match.
Stephen Cluxton's kick outs will play an important role in dictating how much possession Dublin can secure throughout the game. Kerry put pressure on Cluxton in the semi-finals, and it resulted in them winning a free which led to their penalty. Mayo put pressure on Pascal McConnell's kick outs in their semi-final and it resulted in at least one turn over on the Tyrone twenty one yard line. Dublin will be aware of Mayo's push up tactic, and how Jim Gavin and his management team have prepared for it will have a crucial bearing on the result on Sunday.
Taking O'Connor's questionable fitness, the form of Brogan and Connolly, the pace of the Dublin team, and the willingness of Gavin to change his team if things go wrong into account, I think Dublin might just shade it this weekend by two points. Am I letting my heart rule my head? We'll see come twenty-past five on Sunday evening.
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